Economist Pavlina Tcherneva Speaks with Marketplace About Inflation
Pavlina Tcherneva, president of the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, spoke with Marketplace about the current state of inflation in the US economy. “I expect that these price shocks will ripple through the economy in coming months,” said Tcherneva. “Workers are going to be squeezed on both sides, stagnating wages and increasing cost of living."
Economist Pavlina Tcherneva Speaks with Marketplace About Inflation
Pavlina Tcherneva, president of the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, spoke with Marketplace about the current state of inflation in the US economy. The article notes that when the prices of groceries, gas, and rent rise faster than wages, consumers lose purchasing power, which is reflected in the current inflation numbers. “I expect that these price shocks will ripple through the economy in coming months,” said Tcherneva, who added that she does not expect wages to improve much. “Workers are going to be squeezed on both sides, stagnating wages and increasing cost of living."
The Levy Economics Institute Graduate Programs in Economic Theory and Policy were created to offer students an alternative to mainstream programs in economics and finance. These programs combine a rigorous course of study with the exceptional opportunity to participate in advanced economics research alongside Institute scholars. The Levy Institute’s programs also give Bard College undergraduates the opportunity to meet prominent figures who give seminars, attend conferences, and serve on the research staff.
On May 8, at Blithewood Manor, the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College convened its annual conference marking 40 years since the Institute’s founding. The occasion drew the kind of distinguished assembly of economists, journalists, and policymakers that Levy has become known for, united by a shared conviction that conventional economics has consistently failed to reckon with the realities facing the global economy and working Americans.
Bard’s Levy Economics Institute Holds 40th Anniversary Conference
On May 8, at Blithewood Manor, the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College convened its annual conference marking 40 years since the Institute’s founding. The occasion drew the kind of distinguished assembly of economists, journalists, and policymakers that Levy has become known for, united by a shared conviction that conventional economics has consistently failed to reckon with the realities facing the global economy and working Americans.
The keynote was delivered by William H. Janeway, distinguished affiliated professor at Cambridge, veteran venture capitalist, and cofounder of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. The connection was fitting: in 1986, Hyman Minsky—Levy senior scholar and foremost expert on financial instability—asked a young Janeway to address the American Economic Association. 40 years later, Janeway returned the gesture, opening a conference devoted to Minsky’s enduring relevance.
The event’s panels brought together leading voices that have long defined Levy Institute conferences. Former FDIC chairwoman Sheila Bair joined Bloomberg’s Tom Keene in conversation on the next financial crisis. John Cassidy of the New Yorker moderated the opening session on AI and the US economy. Isabella Weber of UMass Amherst and James Galbraith of the LBJ School discussed the global energy crisis and China’s domestic price stabilization policies. Finally, Levy Institute President Tcherneva spoke alongside Darrick Hamilton, chief economist of the AFL-CIO and economic adviser to NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani, on employment and economic security.
“The inescapable reality — the single most defining feature of our economy — is that it no longer works for most Americans,” Tcherneva said. “Everything else follows from this.”
Tcherneva’s opening address was both retrospective and strategic. She traced four decades of the Institute’s real-world impact: predicting the private-sector debt bubble, calling the 2008 housing collapse before it arrived, and anticipating the doubling of central bank balance sheets. Since then, Levy has become a go-to source on financial instability and monetary policy, its influence reaching from the US Congress and European Parliament to the highest levels of the Chinese government, shaping legislation, stabilization policy in Greece, and methodological work by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and international statistical agencies.
Looking ahead, Tcherneva identified two research and policy priorities: economic security for American families and the financial architecture on which that security depends. “Finance must be checked and economic security must be built — those are the twin pillars of Levy’s agenda.” she said. She sounded an alarm on GENIUS/STABLE coin legislation, anticipated a paradigm shift under incoming Fed Chair Warsh, and called for a fundamental rethinking of the 21st-century job—encompassing paid leave, childcare, healthcare, and retirement security alongside direct job creation.
The conference also celebrated the Institute’s graduate program and inaugurated the Levy Alumni Impact Award, presented to Oscar Valdés Viera, Senior Economist at Americans for Financial Reform, recognized for his work on private equity’s threat to retirement accounts. 40 years on, Levy’s ideas have never been more central to economic debate — and the work of the next four decades has already begun.
Assistant Professor of Economics Emanuele Citera coedited Central Banking, Monetary Policy, and the European Central Bank: Coping with the Challenges, which was also was also featured on Faculti, a research and technology platform focused on academic literature. It features essays by over a dozen authors on issues including inflation, climate change, and future financial crises.
Professor Emanuele Citera Coedited a New Book on European Banking
Assistant Professor of Economics Emanuele Citera coedited a book on central banking and crisis management. Central Banking, Monetary Policy, and the European Central Bank: Coping with the Challenges features essays by over a dozen authors on theoretical and practical issues including inflation, climate change, and future financial crises. Citera was also featured on Faculti, a research and technology platform focused on academic literature. He says the book was originally inspired by the internal and external crises experienced by the European banking system, including the pandemic and the 2012 Euro crisis. “We’ve seen different types of shocks [that] the European central bank has been dealing with pretty well,” he said, “[and] we’re more concerned about the legal institutional structure. Would it be possible for the Central Bank to [act] promptly and effectively?”
The Economics Program trains students to think critically about the economy and its social, political, and historical context. Small classes, encouragement of student research, and close interaction with the Levy Economics Institute are distinctive features of the experience.
The Levy Economics Institute Drafts Open Letter to Indian Government
The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College has drafted an open letter to the government of India and gathered signatures in defense of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), the largest rights-based public employment program in the world. Spearheaded by Levy Institute President Pavlina R. Tcherneva, leading international experts have added their names to the open letter in support of the program, which is facing imminent repeal by the Indian government.
MGNREGA, signed into law in 2005, is set to be replaced by the Viksit Bharat G RAM G Bill (2025), which would consolidate authority over the program in the central government while transferring greater and likely unsustainable obligations for administration and payment to the states. MGNREGA aims to guarantee the right to work, and generates over 2 billion person-days of work annually for approximately 50 million households in India. More than half of all workers in the program are women, and about 40 percent are from Scheduled Castes or Tribes. The early years of MGNREGA coincided with unprecedented rural wage growth, and studies confirmed the program’s positive effects on economic output and efficiency.
“Originally passed with unanimous parliamentary support, MGNREGA transcends political lines. Its foundational principle—that the national government must guarantee an employment safety net—affirms economic dignity as a fundamental right,” the letter states. Dismantling the program, the letter concludes, would be a “historic error.”
Economist Pavlina Tcherneva Speaks with Marketplace About Labor Market
Pavlina Tcherneva, president of the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, spoke with Marketplace about the current state of the US labor market. Without jobs data from the federal government, it is difficult for economists to predict the course the national market is taking, but according to one source, US companies announced more layoffs in October 2025 than in any October since 2003. Tcherneva told Marketplace that the macroeconomic picture of the labor market is worsening. “Now the slowdown in hiring is turning into more layoffs,” Tcherneva said. “So, I think basically, we are slowly moving towards a vicious cycle in the labor market that is likely to get worse.”
The Levy Economics Institute Graduate Programs in Economic Theory and Policy were created to offer students an alternative to mainstream programs in economics and finance. These programs combine a rigorous course of study with the exceptional opportunity to participate in advanced economics research alongside Institute scholars. The Levy Institute’s programs also give Bard College undergraduates the opportunity to meet prominent figures who give seminars, attend conferences, and serve on the research staff.
Bard College’s Levy Economics Institute Launches New Capitol Hill Series in D.C. on November 19
On November 19, the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College is launching its Capitol Hill Series, which will bring together financial experts, academics, and policymakers in Washington, D.C., to discuss the most pressing issues facing the economy. The inaugural session, “Rethinking the Federal Reserve’s Policy Framework and Independence,” aims to foster dialogue on critical economic issues among policymakers, congressional staffers, experts, and the public, featuring panels on whether the Fed’s current policy is framework sufficient for the challenges of today, whether it risks becoming impervious to necessary political oversight, and what form oversight should take to ensure both effective governance and democratic accountability.
Speakers include Pavlina R. Tcherneva, president of the Levy Economics Institute; Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors; James K. Galbraith, professor at the University of Texas at Austin; L. Randall Wray, professor at the Levy Economics Institute; and William Bergman, former economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. A Q&A period will follow, moderated by Claire Jones, US economics editor at the Financial Times.
The event will take place on Wednesday, November 19 from 1:30 – 3:30 pm at the Rayburn House Office Building (Room 2045) in Washington, D.C., followed by refreshments and appetizers. The event is free and open to the public. Registration is required and space is limited. Learn more about the event and registration here.
SPEAKER SCHEDULE
Introduction | Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Levy Economics Institute “Why Fed Independence Matters” | Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors “Congress and the Federal Reserve” | James K. Galbraith, University of Texas at Austin “The Fed Is Still Flying Blind” | L. Randall Wray, Levy Economics Institute “When Does ‘Independence’ Become Tyranny?” | William Bergman, Former Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
William Bergman is a semi-retired independent scholar with four decades of financial market and related educational experience, in private and public sector roles. From 1990 to 2004, he served as an economist and financial markets policy analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He earned an MBA (Finance) and an MA (Public Policy) from the University of Chicago in 1990.
James K. Galbraith holds the Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin. He chairs the board of Economists for Peace and Security and directs the University of Texas Inequality Project. He was executive director of the Joint Economic Committee in the early 1980s. From 1993 to 1997, he served as chief technical adviser to China’s State Planning Commission for macroeconomic reform, and in the first half of 2015 as an informal counselor to the Greek minister of finance.
Claudia Sahm is the chief economist at New Century Advisors. She is a highly regarded expert on monetary and fiscal policy with many years of experience advising key decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress. She developed the Sahm rule, a closely followed indicator of recessions. Sahm holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan (2007), and a bachelor’s degree in economics, political science, and German from Denison University (1998).
Pavlina R. Tcherneva is president of the Levy Economics Institute, a professor of economics at Bard College, and founding director of the Bard Economic Democracy Initiative. She specializes in modern money and public policy. Tcherneva’s book The Case for a Job Guarantee (Polity 2020) is a timely guide to the benefits of one of the most transformative public policies being discussed today, recognized by the Financial Times in 2020 and published in nine languages. Tcherneva has collaborated with experts from the United Nations Human Rights Council, the International Labor Organization, members of the European Parliament, as well as policy makers from the United States and abroad on designing and evaluating employment programs. She also worked with the Sanders 2016 Presidential campaign, and in 2020 she was invited to serve on the Biden-Harris economic policy volunteer committee, during their Presidential run.
L. Randall Wray is a professor of economics at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College and Emeritus Professor at University of Missouri-Kansas City. He is one of the developers of Modern Money Theory and his newest book on the topic is Understanding Modern Money Theory: Money and Credit in Capitalist Economies (Elgar). He is the 2022 Veblen-Commons Award winner for lifetime contributions to Institutionalist Thought. He has been a Fulbright Scholar to Italy (twice) and to Estonia, and a visiting professor at the Universities of Paris, Bologna, Bergamo, Rome, UNAM in Mexico City, UNICAMP in Brazil, Tallinn University in Estonia, Nankai University, China, and a visiting professor on a continuing basis at Masaryk University, Czech Republic. He was the Distinguished Visiting Professor at Willamette University, Oregon, in 2022-23.
Economist Pavlina Tcherneva Speaks About Labor Market for Marketplace
Pavlina Tcherneva, president of the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, spoke with Marketplace about the state of the national employment market. As the government shutdown has halted all nonessential operations, including the jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, economists turn to other available sources to gather data on the current labor market. Tcherneva says that although large firms, with 500 or more employees, added jobs last month, “this is such a small proportion of total employment, it makes no difference to the overall trends,” adding that 90% of employers have fewer than 100 workers. “It’s another look at the weakening labor market.”
Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erika McEntarfer ’95 Spoke at Bard College in First Public Remarks Since Dismissal
Hosted by the Levy Economics Institute, Bard alumna Erika McEntarfer ’95, former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), spoke to an audience of Bard students, faculty, staff, and community members in Olin Hall on September 16. She recounted the day of her abrupt dismissal following the release of the July jobs report and discussed the ways that nonpartisan statisticians affect our everyday lives as Americans. McEntarfer compared the efforts of the BLS to the work of city planners involved in transportation infrastructure. “Real-time economic data is like live traffic updates—helpful for making quick decisions—like adjusting interest rates quickly to avoid an economic downturn,” she said. The data produced by BLS is used widely, from top officials in the federal government to traders on Wall Street, whose decisions have real consequences for Americans. “The decisions they make—to adjust interest rates to avoid a recession, to build a new plant in your city, to sell stocks or bonds—impact how easy it will be for you to find a good job, how affordable it will be for you to buy a house and raise a family, and how comfortable your retirement will be.”
Introducing McEntarfer, Pavlina Tcherneva, president of the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, noted that this event was more than just an academic talk. “This is our community gathering to champion a vital idea: that truth and rigorous analysis matter,” Tcherneva said. “That our ability to solve problems and find common ground depends on a shared commitment to facts and honest inquiry.” She emphasized that the work done at the Levy Institute relies on “reliable, trustworthy data,” and that without that, “We would lose our capacity to truly understand the economic forces shaping our communities and our country.”
McEntarfer warned of the potential costs of politicization of economic data. “Economic data must be free from partisan influence. That is essential to the mission of the agency. Markets have to trust that the data are not manipulated,” she said. “Firing your chief statisticians for releasing data you do not like will have serious economic consequences.” After the talk concluded, she took the time to answer questions from the audience, including from current students on topics ranging from data science, job prospects, and their Senior Projects. The talk was widely covered across all major news outlets, from the New York Times to the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg to CNN.
The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, public policy research organization that encourages diversity of opinion in the examination of economic policy issues while striving to transform ideological arguments into informed debate. The Levy Institute is home to two Master's degree programs—a one-year MA and two-year MS—in Economic Theory and Policy. Watch Now
Pavlina Tcherneva Participates in Press Briefing on Federal Reserve Policy on C-SPAN
Pavlina Tcherneva, president of the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, contributed to a press briefing aired on C-SPAN ahead of the upcoming 2025 Federal Reserve Annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. As the Federal Reserve prepares to convene for the annual Wyoming conference on August 21–23 to discuss the future of monetary policy, Tcherneva examines the need to rethink the policy framework of the Federal Reserve and the necessity of incorporating climate risks to labor markets into their macro modeling. Climate risks are now a “structural force that will impact labor markets,” Tcherneva says. “This is not a one-off event, this is going to be a perennial risk for labor markets, for firms, for business conditions, and the way the macroeconomy functions.” The briefing was organized by Public Citizen, a nonprofit consumer advocacy organization, with the participation of former Federal Reserve governor Sarah Bloom Raskin and US Congressman Sean Casten, Democrat of Illinois.
The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, public policy research organization that encourages diversity of opinion in the examination of economic policy issues while striving to transform ideological arguments into informed debate.
Blithewood4:45 pm – 6:45 pm EDT/GMT-4 Come celebrate graduating economics majors and the Levy Class of 2024 with other economics undergraduate and graduate students and faculty! All are welcome. South Asian food will be served.
Monday, March 11, 2024
Bertelsmann Campus Center, George Ball Lounge6:00 pm – 8:00 pm EDT/GMT-4 It time for a break! Join us for recharging snacks and drinks in this midterm season! Brought to you by the Economics Club!